Artificial intelligence, automation and broader economic changes could trigger a major reshuffling of the US workforce, according to a new McKinsey Global Institute report.
The consultancy estimates that automation could reduce labour demand equivalent to around 36 million jobs by 2035, while economic growth and new technology-related demand could generate demand for about 41 million jobs.
The crucial issue is that those positions will not necessarily be suitable for the people whose current work is affected. McKinsey estimates roughly 11 million US workers may need to move into entirely different occupations by 2035, with the figure ranging from six million to 16 million depending on how quickly automation is adopted.
That makes the report less a forecast of jobs disappearing altogether and more a warning about the difficulty of moving people between careers.
Which US Jobs Face The Biggest AI Disruption?
The potential transition away from declining occupations is heavily concentrated in office and administrative support, retail and sales, and transportation and logistics. McKinsey says more than 75% of the workers who may need to change occupations are currently in these three occupational groups.
Lower-paid workers face a particularly difficult adjustment, with the report estimating they are 7.6 times more likely than higher-paid workers to require a move into another occupation.
The report's modelling also shows why the headline number of affected jobs needs context. Roughly 25 million positions could be offset by growth within the same occupations. In other words, many workers may remain in their existing fields even as the tasks they perform change.
McKinsey estimates that around 770,000 workers a year could need to make that kind of move during the next decade. That is about 3.6 times the non-pandemic historical average of roughly 215,000 annual transitions.
The report notes that the US experienced a similar level during the 2019 to 2022 period, when occupational switching reached about 788,000 workers a year, but that was a relatively short disruption rather than a projected decade-long adjustment.
The jobs expected to expand look markedly different from many of those facing declining demand. Healthcare, construction and management are among the areas McKinsey identifies as likely sources of employment growth.
Around 60% of employment growth in its model could be concentrated in the top two wage groups, while more than 70% of declining employment could sit in the bottom two.
Why Moving Into Growing Careers Could Be Difficult
Having more jobs available does not necessarily mean displaced workers can move straight into them. McKinsey estimates that only about one in seven workers needing a new occupation has a direct pathway requiring little retraining and no loss of pay.
Around 41% face a winding route involving meaningful retraining, while approximately 45% could face an unpaved pathway involving larger skills gaps, credential requirements or other obstacles.
Credentials are one of the biggest barriers. Roughly 85% of growing jobs in the report require a credential or certification, meaning workers with relevant experience may still need additional qualifications or certifications before they can access some expanding roles.
Geography can add another hurdle because about 76% of growing jobs require workers to be physically present, including work in hospitals, construction and data centres.
The report also highlights a less obvious change: workers do not always have to leave their occupations for AI to alter their careers. McKinsey estimates that more than 70% of workers could require some level of reinvention because more than 15% of their task time could be reallocated.
That could mean learning new tools, taking on different responsibilities or developing skills that were not previously central to a role.
The consultancy's research points to AI fluency, adaptability, resilience, curiosity and willingness to learn as increasingly useful capabilities. Demand for AI fluency in US job postings has risen 11-fold since 2022, according to McKinsey's analysis of job-posting data.
The takeaway is therefore more complicated than a simple list of jobs that AI will replace.
McKinsey's model suggests the US could have more jobs available in 2035 than it does today, but millions of workers may struggle to reach those opportunities because their existing skills, qualifications, wages or locations do not line up with where demand is growing.
For workers, that puts greater emphasis on acquiring transferable skills and recognised qualifications before occupational demand shifts.
For employers and policymakers, it raises a different question: whether training and career pathways can develop quickly enough to connect people leaving declining roles with the jobs that are expanding.
Frequently Asked Questions
- What is the main concern of the McKinsey report?The report warns about the difficulty of moving people between careers due to AI and automation.
- Which job sectors are most affected by AI disruption?Office and administrative support, retail and sales, and transportation and logistics are most affected.
- What are the barriers to moving into growing careers?Barriers include the need for retraining, credentials, and geographic relocation.
- What skills are becoming more important due to AI?AI fluency, adaptability, resilience, curiosity, and willingness to learn are increasingly useful.
