The launch of Grand Theft Auto VI could become an unusual test of how economists measure the cost of taking time off work, but the widely reported estimate that the game could cost the US economy $1 billion (£740 million) in lost productivity has come under scrutiny.
The claim centres on workers missing shifts to play Rockstar Games' long-awaited title, which is scheduled for release on 19 November 2026. However, economist Victor Matheson of the College of the Holy Cross has questioned whether the projected losses would reflect a lasting reduction in economic output.
He argues that workers who take leave for a major entertainment event may simply use fewer holiday days later, shifting their free time rather than creating a lasting loss of output. The debate also raises a less obvious question: should time spent enjoying a highly anticipated game necessarily be treated as an economic setback?
Where The GTA 6 $1 Billion Economic Estimate Came From
The figure has been attributed to José García Montalvo, an economics professor at Pompeu Fabra University in Barcelona.
As reported by Fortune, the projection has circulated for months, with earlier coverage tracing it to Spanish-language reporting. The news agency MercoPress also noted that the estimate was not based on a published study with a full methodology.
The calculation reportedly assumes that around 1.5 million American workers could miss a shift and uses average annual output of approximately $70,000 (£52,000) per worker as part of the calculation.
However, those figures do not independently reproduce the $1 billion (£740 million) estimate. For illustration, $70,000 (£52,000) by 250 working days gives approximately $280 (£207) per worker per day. Multiplied by 1.5 million workers, that would amount to around $420 million (£311 million).
This is not a definitive alternative estimate, since actual output varies by worker and industry, and the original calculation may include other assumptions that have not been disclosed.
Human resources software company BambooHR told Money that requests for time off on 19 November were running between 9% and 17% above those for a typical third Thursday in November. A company spokesperson cautioned that the increase could also reflect workers feeling more comfortable using their paid leave.
The figures indicate an increase in requests for that date, but they do not establish how many people will actually be absent, whether they intend to play GTA 6 or how much output businesses will lose.
Take-Two Interactive chief executive Strauss Zelnick anticipated the prospect of widespread absences in April, saying that 'a lot of people will be calling in sick on November 19'.
Why Lost Productivity Does Not Necessarily Mean Lasting Economic Damage
Matheson challenges the assumptions behind lost-productivity estimates, arguing that they can overlook the difference between producing less during a particular period and producing less overall.
The distinction is familiar from major sporting events. Employees might watch a match during the day and catch up on emails later, while others arrange their holidays around fixtures. Matheson described his own approach during the World Cup to Fortune, explaining that he skipped emails during afternoon matches and answered them at night.
He also challenged the idea that every hour spent away from paid work represents a loss to society. 'If people take time off to play video games or play soccer or listen to music or climb mountains, that does in fact reduce gross domestic product, but that's not the only way to measure a country's well-being,' he said.
Gross domestic product (GDP) measures the value of goods and services produced, not how much enjoyment people get from their free time. Matheson pointed to Bhutan, which uses a happiness index to assess national progress, as an example of an alternative way to think about well-being.
That does not mean lost output is irrelevant to employers. Businesses may still face staffing shortages, delayed work or additional pressure on colleagues when employees are absent. A short-term disruption does not automatically translate into an equivalent permanent loss for the economy as a whole.
There are precedents for eye-catching calculations of this kind. In 2022, outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas estimated that the Super Bowl could cost employers more than $6.5 billion in lost productivity on the following Monday.
The estimate drew on survey data, including research by the Workforce Institute at Kronos, and illustrates how such figures can depend on the assumptions and evidence used.
Matheson argues that a single video game launch is likely to disrupt work less than a tournament lasting several weeks. He told Fortune: 'I don't think you're going to get many people who are spending weeks at this, and certainly not taking days off for weeks.'
The eventual effect will depend on how many workers take leave, whether their duties are covered and how businesses manage any disruption. Until evidence emerges about actual absences and their consequences, the billion-dollar prediction remains a projection rather than a measured economic loss.
The debate highlights a limitation in using productivity as the sole measure of an event's value. The enjoyment people get from playing a game is not fully captured by GDP.
For economists, personal well-being and measured economic output are different questions, and the answer to one does not automatically settle the other.
